The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan, has long stood as a rare example of cooperation in an otherwise hostile relationship. However, recent geopolitical escalations, including military conflicts, terrorism accusations, and shifting hydrological strategies, have put this treaty under unprecedented strain. In 2025, the situation took a dramatic turn when India decided to suspend its obligations under the IWT, leading to direct impacts on Pakistan’s water supply, agriculture, and internal stability. This article critically examines the question: Is India blocking Pakistan’s water under the Indus Waters Treaty?
Understanding the Indus Waters Treaty
Historical Context and Division of Rivers
The IWT was brokered by the World Bank and signed by then-Prime Minister of India Jawaharlal Nehru and President of Pakistan Ayub Khan. It divided the Indus River system’s six rivers between the two countries:
- India got control over the three eastern rivers: Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.
- Pakistan received unrestricted access to the three western rivers: Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum.
This division was agreed upon under the principle of “equitable apportionment,” and both countries were obligated to respect each other’s rights over their allotted rivers.
Treaty Enforcement and Dispute Resolution
The treaty included mechanisms for dispute resolution via neutral experts and international arbitration. Despite three major wars, the treaty survived — until now.
What Changed in 2025?
India’s Suspension of the IWT
In April 2025, following a terrorist attack in Pahalgam which India blamed on Pakistani-backed militants, the Indian government, led by Home Minister Amit Shah and Jal Shakti Minister C.R. Paatil, held an emergency security meeting. The outcome was unprecedented: India suspended its obligations under the Indus Waters Treaty.
According to multiple media reports, India claimed:
“Not a single drop of Indian water will flow into Pakistan going forward.”
This aggressive posture marked a major departure from decades of cautious compliance with the IWT.
Immediate Actions Taken by India
India took the following immediate steps:
- Closed floodgates at Salal and Baglihar dams on the Chenab River.
- Accelerated hydropower projects in Jammu & Kashmir, bypassing earlier environmental and legal challenges.
- Diverted water from western rivers to Indian canals, especially those irrigating Punjab and Rajasthan.
Pakistan’s Water Crisis Begins
Reduced Inflow to Major Rivers
Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) reported a 21% decrease in river water availability during early Kharif 2025. This reduction, primarily from the Chenab and Jhelum rivers, directly impacted irrigation and drinking water supply in key agricultural provinces like Punjab and Sindh.
Strategic Dams at ‘Dead Levels’
Reports indicated that major dams, including Tarbela and Mangla, reached dead levels due to lack of inflow. This not only threatened electricity generation but also drinking water supplies for major urban centers.
Economic and Agricultural Impact on Pakistan
Threat to Food Security
Reduced water availability struck at the heart of Pakistan’s economy: agriculture. Kharif crops like cotton, sugarcane, and rice rely heavily on early summer irrigation. The 21% water shortage is expected to result in:
- 18% decline in cotton output
- 12% drop in rice yields
- Severe disruptions in sugarcane harvesting
This could push Pakistan toward higher food inflation and import dependency, weakening its already fragile economy.
Power Outages and Hydroelectric Disruption
Pakistan’s reliance on hydropower (approx. 27% of total electricity generation) also took a hit. With dams at dead levels, power generation decreased, leading to rolling blackouts in major cities such as Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad.
Legal and Diplomatic Responses by Pakistan
Strong Protests and Warnings
Pakistan lodged strong diplomatic protests, calling India’s move a “flagrant violation” of international law. The Foreign Office warned that this action could:
“Destabilize the entire South Asian region and constitute water aggression.”
Appeals to International Community
Pakistan approached:
- The World Bank, as the IWT guarantor
- The United Nations, for global mediation
- The International Court of Justice (ICJ), to argue the treaty’s binding nature
However, global response has been largely muted, with most nations unwilling to take sides in the Indo-Pakistani conflict.
India’s Strategic Intentions
Water as a Weapon
India’s suspension of the IWT seems to signal a shift in strategy: using water as a geopolitical weapon. With increasing water scarcity due to climate change, India may view water leverage as essential for national security.
Domestic Political Calculations
With upcoming national elections and rising nationalist sentiment, the Indian government has portrayed the suspension as a victory for sovereignty and justice. The move appeals to conservative voters and projects strength against perceived external threats.
International Law and Treaty Obligations
Can India Legally Withdraw from the IWT?
According to international treaty law (Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, 1969), unilateral withdrawal from a bilateral treaty is highly constrained unless mutual consent is achieved or one party fundamentally violates it.
India claims that terrorism emanating from Pakistan constitutes a “material breach.” However, this justification is not universally accepted.
What Happens If the Treaty Collapses?
A full collapse of the IWT would lead to:
- An unregulated water race between two nuclear powers
- Disruptions in irrigation, energy, and ecology for both nations
- Increased chances of military confrontation over water access
Strategic Consequences for the Region
Rise in Regional Tensions
India’s actions have alarmed not just Pakistan but also:
- China, which shares transboundary rivers with India
- Bangladesh, which relies on Indian rivers flowing downstream
- Afghanistan and Central Asia, where similar disputes are intensifying
Environmental Consequences
Blocking or diverting water can cause:
- Riverbed degradation
- Desertification in downstream Pakistan
- Collapse of fisheries and biodiversity in the Indus Delta
What Is the Way Forward?
Renegotiation of the Treaty?
Some Indian think tanks propose a complete renegotiation of the IWT, claiming it is outdated and unfair to India. Pakistan, however, views any such effort as a strategic trap to further reduce its water share.
Third-Party Mediation
Neutral international mediation may be the only viable path forward. However, growing global polarization and the Ukraine and Taiwan conflicts have pushed South Asian issues off the global radar.
Conclusion: Is India Blocking Pakistan’s Water?
Yes — India is actively restricting Pakistan’s water access under the guise of national security and retaliation against cross-border terrorism. While India claims the move is temporary and justified, the operational changes in dam management and construction of new diversion canals show long-term intent.
This watershed moment marks the potential collapse of a 65-year-old treaty that had ensured peace over water in one of the world’s most dangerous regions. Without diplomatic intervention or compromise, this dispute may turn into a full-blown water war — a terrifying prospect in a nuclear neighborhood.